Under Western pressure to stop arms shipments to Macedonia, Ukraine is facing a choice between lucrative contracts and closer ties with NATO, a serious weekly has said. Meanwhile, Russia is standing by to fill th niche on the Macedonian arms market. The following is the text of the article by Valentyn Badrak, published in the Ukrainian weekly Zerkalo Nedeli on 23 February:

 

Ukraine's relations with the West are getting closer to deadlock day by day.

 

The year 2001 witnessed reorientation to Russia in foreign policy. Ukraine gave preference to the Asian vector of cooperation over the Western vector at a time when geopolitical laws dictated the need to continue European integration. It should be continued even it remains mere declaration, but this declaration should become more pronounced an up to date. A more colourful design is needed.

 

The West understands this, too. While in the past, Western leaders appeared to make steps towards Ukraine to counteract Russia, by 2002 it has become clear that Ukraine needs the West more than the West needs Ukraine.

 

Otherwise, Kiev would never free itself from the Eastern neighbour's embrace.

 

Those among the Ukrainian military who understand very well that integration by helmet is less painful than any other kind and would be more welcome in Europe than Ukrainian aircraft and missiles, are coming up with new initiatives.

 

It looks as if Kiev's application to join NATO could be among such initiatives.

 

They want to make Ukraine the 10th member of a special programme for NATO candidates, The Member Action Plan, even if it means Ukraine losing the funds allotted to it under the [NATO] special partnership charter, not to mention Moscow's reaction.

 

But even this intention may fail to impress Western partners who have come up with one very tough demand. An assumption made by Zerkalo Nedeli in the previous issue has unfortunately been confirmed: the USA and NATO are going to come up with a condition, according to which the Ukraine-NATO commission session at the highest level would be possible in Prague in autumn only if Ukraine stops military equipment supplies to a certain Balkan country.

 

Trustworthy sources in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry are saying that Kiev is very likely to stop military-technical cooperation with Macedonia. The experts are saying ironically that a recent trip to Kiev by the secretary-general of the Council of the European Union, Javier Solana [on 21 February] was a success. This was the last and the weightiest argument. Official Kiev is expected to announce its decision very soon with an eye to forthcoming meetings with EU military leaders, where Ukraine's proposals concerning participation in the European defence initiative should be accepted in exchange.

 

The USA and NATO insisted Ukraine to revise its military-technical policy in relation to Skopje last year. But Ukraine managed to stand its ground, practically for the first time ever. Now the situation is complicated again. The problem is not the new Ukrainian-Macedonian contract on the shipment of 20 armoured personnel carriers, discussed by experts, but rather the very fact of Kiev's disobedience.

 

We shall not go deep into the chronology of military and technical cooperation. Quite recently, during the 14-16 January visit to Kiev by Macedonian Army Chief of Staff Lt-Gen Metodij Stamboliski, Kiev and Skopje agreed to launch an enterprise to repair armoured vehicles in Macedonia with Ukraine's assistance. According to an earlier agreement, Ukrainian experts were to assist Macedonia in setting up not only a repair station for armoured vehicles, but also a plant to repair aircraft. The development of military-technical cooperation concerning air defence, radar systems, ammunition and other kinds of arms and equipment was not ruled out in the future. Ukraine upgraded most of the 95 T-55 tanks which Bulgaria handed to Macedonia in 1999 at the Kiev based Ukrainian Defence Ministry's armoured vehicles plant.

 

In March 2001, Macedonia received from Ukraine two Mi-24 combat helicopters and four military transport helicopters Mi-8 of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry's helicopter squadron which participated in the peacekeeping in the Balkans. In the beginning of July 2001, it was reported that Ukraine additionally handed over to Macedonia four Mi-24 and four Su-25 attack aircraft of the Ukrainian air force. At the moment, the Macedonian army consists of 16,000 active servicemen (no more than 10,000, according to alternative sources) and 60,000 reservists. Stamboliski said in Kiev that his country was counting on Kiev's assistance in the training of Macedonian military specialists to repair armoured vehicles and ammunition, communication systems and air defence means.

 

Macedonia is planning to spend 125m dollars on the modernization and professional training of its army over the next five years.

 

The issue of military-technical cooperation with Macedonia has grown into a political problem for Ukraine. Kiev has been balancing for as long as it could, as Macedonia and a sympathetic Greece could serve as a floating bridge first for the military sector and, in the future, for the entire Ukraine. Macedonia has already backed several Ukrainian initiatives, including the participation in the council of defence ministers of southeastern Europe.

 

But have NATO and US defence advisers measured their pressure carefully?

 

Ukrainian leaders are getting seriously disappointed with the West, although, as in the case of the Bushehr contract [under US pressure, Ukraine withdrew from a multi-million contract to supply turbines to Iran], they do not dare to argue. The irony is that if Kiev stops the military-technical cooperation with Macedonia, this niche will soon be filled. And it is not hard to guess who will fill it. The same arms will continue to flow to Macedonia, but this time from Russia. Will Brussels benefit from this? In this case, Kiev will eventually decide that cooperation with the West is possible only at the level of declarations for the next several years. If so, [Ukrainian President] Leonid Kuchma's recent slip of the tongue, when he said that it was a mistake to bet on the West, may become Ukraine's new slogan.

 

 

Macedonia seeks counter-insurgency techniques used in Chechnya.

By Toby Westerman © 2002 WorldNetDaily.com

 

Despite intense efforts by the European Union and NATO to resolve the simmering crisis in the Balkans, the region again shows signs of boiling over into bloody ethnic and religious warfare, as Russia's influence grows in the area, a result of disenchantment with Western peacekeeping efforts.

 

A spokesman for the Defense Ministry of Macedonia, a small former republic of Yugoslavia located in the south central Balkan Peninsula, stated that Macedonia is appealing to Russia for assistance and "will use Russian counter-terrorist experience in Chechnya," according to official Russian sources.

 

Moscow stated that the Macedonian chief of staff, Gen. Jovan Petkovski, has already obtained an agreement with Russia "to provide consultations" with Macedonia on counter-insurgency techniques used in Chechnya. "The [Macedonian] defense minister sees much in common between Albanian militants operating in Macedonia and [Chechen] armed groups," Moscow stated.

 

The statements were carried by the Voice of Russia World Service, the official broadcasting service of the Russian government.

 

For several years, Macedonia has witnessed serious civil strife between the Macedonian majority and the nation's Albanian minority. The Albanians claim that the Macedonian majority has discriminated against them, while ethnic Macedonians charge that the Albanians want to establish a Muslim "Greater Albania" carved out of Macedonian and Kosovo territory.

 

"Macedonian authorities are aware that international terrorist centers try to convert a country into a stronghold" for the purpose of "carrying out attacks using money from abroad and mercenaries," Moscow asserted, drawing a comparison between the guerrillas in Macedonia with Chechen militants who have attacked Russian territory outside of Chechnya.

 

The militant Islamic guerrillas in the Chechnya republic, which is a member of the Russian Federation, have attacked neighboring Russian republics and have been accused of bombings in Moscow. Ties between the Chechen militants and Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida terrorist network have been established, and the Chechen fighters are known to finance a portion of their activities through illegal drug trafficking.

 

The request from Macedonia for Russian expertise "means that [Macedonia], which really realizes the danger of spreading international terror, assesses highly the methods used by Russia" to suppress the Chechyn insurgency.

 

Macedonia's interest in Russian counter-insurgency methods in Chechnya is occurring despite repeated Western condemnation of those methods.

 

In April 2001, the U.N. Commission on Human Rights approved a resolution presented by the European Union that "strongly condemns the continued use of disproportionate and indiscriminate force by Russian military forces including attacks against civilians," according to a BBC report.

 

The Commission on Human Rights also denounced "serious violations of human rights, such as forced disappearances, extra judicial summary and arbitrary executions and torture."

 

At the same time the Macedonian Defense Ministry is seeking Russian advice on possible means of counter-insurgency, Gjorgji Trendafilov, a spokesman for the Macedonian government, expressed outrage at the suggestion that an agreement on the borders between Macedonia and Yugoslavia is not valid.

According to a Macedonian Information Agency report, U.S. Brig. Gen. Keith Huber, who is the KFOR Commander of the Multinational Brigade East, stated that the Feb. 23, 2001, Border Delineation Agreement was "illegal." Huber also stated that U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan agreed with the assessment of the border agreement.

 

KFOR is the U.N.'s military force in Kosovo, and it coordinates its efforts with UNMIK, the civilian U.N. Mission in Kosovo.

 

"Such statements are only supported by those that have caused the armed conflicts in Macedonia," Trendafilov declared.

 

The question of the validity of the border agreement arose from claims by farmers in Kosovo who owned land in Macedonia but were unable to cultivate it. Huber stated that he will use troops to back the claim of the Kosovo farmers.

 

The Macedonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs cited other statements from KFOR and UNMIK officials placing the border agreement between Macedonia and Yugoslavia in question, the Macedonian Information Agency reported.

 

The president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Vojislav Kostunica, also expressed his concern over statements questioning the legality of the border agreement.

 

Kostunica appealed to Annan in a letter stating that the border agreement was "published as a document of the General Assembly and the U.N. Security Council," and requested that the U.N. observe Yugoslavia's territorial integrity, which is guaranteed in U.N. Resolution 1244.

 

Kostunica's statements were reported by Radio Yugoslavia, the official broadcasting and Internet service of the Yugoslav government.

 

While some U.N. representatives in the Balkan region are ready to redraw borders in one of the most volatile regions on earth, the exact position of Annan remained unclear at press time.